{"id":213124,"date":"2023-02-13T10:04:49","date_gmt":"2023-02-13T02:04:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/?p=213124"},"modified":"2023-02-13T10:29:39","modified_gmt":"2023-02-13T02:29:39","slug":"planb-said-bitcoin-valuation-model-diverges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/planb-said-bitcoin-valuation-model-diverges\/","title":{"rendered":"PlanB \u653e\u68c4\u9810\u6e2c\uff1f\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u4f30\u503c\u6a21\u578b\uff08S2F\u3001\u6316\u7926\u96e3\u5ea6\u3001UTXO..\uff09\u7522\u751f\u5206\u6b67"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"intro_quote\">\u63d0\u51fa\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63 S2F \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8912\u8cb6\u4e0d\u4e00\u7684\u533f\u540d\u5206\u6790\u5e2b PlanB\u3002\u6628\u65e5\u767c\u63a8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u5e7e\u7a2e BTC \u50f9\u683c\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u6316\u7926\u96e3\u5ea6\u3001UTXO&#8230;\uff09\u6b63\u9010\u6f38\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u9810\u4f30 BTC \u50f9\u683c\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u96e3\u3002<br \/>\n\uff08\u524d\u60c5\u63d0\u8981\uff1a<span style=\"color: #ff6600;\"><a style=\"color: #ff6600;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/well-known-analyst-plan-b-says-this-is-bull-trap\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PlanB\u767c\u6587\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u662f\u725b\u5e02\u9677\u9631\u300d\u88ab\u8cea\u7591S2F\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5fd9\u89e3\u91cb\uff1a\u6b63\u8655\u4e0b\u8f2a\u725b\u5e02\u958b\u7aef<\/a><\/span>\uff09<br \/>\n\uff08\u4e8b\u4ef6\u80cc\u666f\uff1a<span style=\"color: #ff6600;\"><a style=\"color: #ff6600;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/bitcoin-is-already-in-its-next-bull-market-cycle-pantera-capital\/\">Pantera Capital\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5e95\u90e8\u5df2\u904e\uff01\u6b63\u8655\u65bc\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u725b\u5e02\u9031\u671f<\/a><\/span>\uff09<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"dropcap \" style=\"background-color: #ffffff; color: #000000; border-color: #ffffff;\">\u63d0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u51fa\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63 S2F (Stock-to-Flow) \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u66fe\u591a\u6b21\u6210\u529f\u9810\u6e2c BTC \u50f9\u683c\u800c\u805e\u540d\u7684\u533f\u540d\u5206\u6790\u5e2b PlanB\uff0c\u5728 2022 \u9810\u6e2c\u5931\u6e96\u4e26<a href=\"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/vitalik-s2f-model-giving-people-the-illusion-of-only-rising-but-not-falling\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u98fd\u53d7\u6279\u8a55<\/a>\u5f8c\u5c31\u6bd4\u8f03\u5c11\u53d7\u5230\u793e\u7fa4\u95dc\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5be6\u4ed6\u4ecd\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u5206\u4eab\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u76f8\u95dc\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6628\u65e5\u6df1\u591c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u8cbc\u51fa\u4e00\u5f35\u5716\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u8a55\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u6b63\u5728\u7522\u751f\u5206\u6b67\uff01\u6709\u6642\u6240\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u5728\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u4e0a\u6536\u6582\uff08\u4f8b\u5982 2011\uff0c2013\uff0c2017\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u73fe\u5728\u300c\u6316\u7926\u96e3\u5ea6\u300d\u3001\u300cUTXO\u300d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u53ca BTC \u7576\u524d\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u90fd\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc S2F \u548c\u6642\u9593\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>PlanB \u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u660e\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u54ea\u500b\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u6703\u6700\u7cbe\u6e96\uff1f\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u89e3\u91cb S2F \u6a21\u578b\u8207\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u73fe\u50f9\u5dee\u7570\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u8a62\u554f\u793e\u7fa4\u4ee5\u4e0a\u9019\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426\u6703\u5931\u6548\uff1f\u5c07\u7b54\u6848\u5c07\u7d66\u6642\u9593\u4f86\u8b49\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#bitcoin<\/a> valuation models are diverging! Sometimes all models converge on roughly the same value (2011, 2013, 2017). Now difficulty &amp; utxo based models (and BTC price) show a much lower value than S2F-ratio &amp; time based models. Will difficulty &amp; utxo pump or will S2F &amp; time fail? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Qbj34Oq3qQ\">pic.twitter.com\/Qbj34Oq3qQ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; PlanB (@100trillionUSD) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/100trillionUSD\/status\/1624786501597790209?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 12, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"jeg_post_title\">Pantera Capital \uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5df2\u7d93\u8655\u65bc\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u725b\u5e02\u9031\u671f<\/h3>\n<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u5c55\u73fe\u5f37\u52c1\u6f32\u5e45\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u767c\u5c55\u9084\u662f\u66d6\u6627\u4e0d\u660e\uff0c\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8a8d\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7121\u6cd5\u907f\u514d\u3002\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u7ba1\u7406 48 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u3001\u52a0\u5bc6\u8ca8\u5e63\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\u6700\u5927\u8cc7\u672c\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684 Pantera Capital\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u4efd\u81f4\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/panteracapital.com\/blockchain-letter\/the-seventh-bull-cycle\/#Bitcoin_Price\">\u5340\u584a\u93c8\u5831\u544a\u4e2d<\/a>\uff0c\u5247\u8ac7\u5230\u4e86\u5c0d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u6a02\u89c0\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u57f7\u884c\u9577 Dan Morehead \u5728\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u6211\u76f8\u4fe1\u5340\u584a\u93c8\u76f8\u95dc\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5e95\u90e8\u5df2\u7d93\u5230\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6b63\u8655\u65bc\u4e0b\u4e00\u500b\u725b\u5e02\u9031\u671f\u2014\u2014\u9019\u4e0d\u7ba1\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u654f\u611f\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u6703\u767c\u751f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Dan Morehead \u88dc\u5145\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c2021 \u5e74 11 \u6708\u81f3 2022 \u5e74 11 \u6708\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u662f\u5178\u578b\u9031\u671f\u7684\u4e2d\u503c\u00a0\uff08median\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u6b21\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5728\u718a\u5e02\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e2d\u8dcc\u7834\u4e0a\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u725b\u5e02\u9ad8\u9ede\uff082 \u842c\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;\">\u8dcc\u5e45\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u5929\u6578\u70ba 307 \u5929\uff0c\u9019\u6ce2\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u5929\u6578\u70ba 376 \u5929\uff1b\u8dcc\u5e45\u7684\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u6bd4\u4f8b\u70ba -73%\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u718a\u5e02\u6536\u65bc -77%\u3002\u6578\u64da\u8b49\u660e\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u7684\u53cd\u5f48\u4ee3\u8868\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5df2\u7d93\u7d50\u675f\u718a\u5e02\u9031\u671f\u3002<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a<span style=\"color: #3366ff;\"><a style=\"color: #3366ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/bitcoin-halving69-remain-9-mining\/\">\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6e1b\u534a\u768469%\u5b9a\u5f8b\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u89f8\u5e95\uff0c\u5c07\u555f\u52d5\u65b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u6f32\u5e45<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_213032\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-213032\" style=\"width: 848px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-213032 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2023\/02\/\u622a\u5716-2023-02-12-\u4e0a\u5348110334.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"848\" height=\"676\" srcset=\"https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2023\/02\/\u622a\u5716-2023-02-12-\u4e0a\u5348110334-300x239.png 300w, https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2023\/02\/\u622a\u5716-2023-02-12-\u4e0a\u5348110334-768x612.png 768w, https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2023\/02\/\u622a\u5716-2023-02-12-\u4e0a\u5348110334-750x536.png 750w, https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2023\/02\/\u622a\u5716-2023-02-12-\u4e0a\u5348110334.png 848w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 848px) 100vw, 848px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-213032\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u5716\u6e90\uff1aPantera Capital<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Morehead \u8a8d\u70ba\u7576\u524d\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5df2\u7d93\u812b\u96e2\u5e95\u90e8\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u958b\u59cb\u8d70\u7684\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u5c07\u662f\u7e7c\u516d\u500b\u718a\u5e02\u9031\u671f\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e03\u500b\u725b\u5e02\u9031\u671f\u3002<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_213025\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-213025\" style=\"width: 1435px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-213025 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2023\/02\/89cdffa1-3676-49b6-8089-67a03d8dae3a.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"1435\" height=\"793\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-213025\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u5716\u6e90\uff1aPantera Capital<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>\u5bcc\u7238\u7238\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u5e02\u5834\u6703\u5728 2\/14 \u8fce\u4f86\u5d29\u76e4<\/h3>\n<p>\u300a\u5bcc\u7238\u7238\uff0e\u7aae\u7238\u7238\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\u4f5c\u8005\u7f85\u4f2f\u7279\u6e05\u5d0e\uff08Robert Kiyosaki\uff09\u5728 11 \u65e5\u7684\u63a8\u6587\u4e5f<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Dividenduck\/status\/1624082011760517120?s=20&amp;t=tDZMZ5nyvigzu0Zq7O1i6w\">\u8868\u793a<\/a>\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u77fd\u8c37\u5728 2022 \u5e74\u88c1\u54e1 144,000 \u4eba\uff0c\u5230\u4e86 2023 \u5e74\u5c07\u518d\u88c1\u54e1\u8d85 66,000 \u4eba\u3002\u4e26\u5f15\u7528\u4e86 Stansberry Research \u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u6307\u51fa<strong>\u60c5\u4eba\u7bc0\uff0814\uff09\u5230\u4f86\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u8fce\u4f86\u5927\u5d29\u76e4<\/strong>\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u9ec3\u91d1\u3001\u767d\u9280\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u9023\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u90fd\u5c07\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u672c\u9031\u5c07\u6709\u591a\u9805\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u767c\u4f48\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u53c8\u4ee5 14 \u65e5\u7684 1 \u6708\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff09\u6700\u53d7\u77da\u76ee\uff0c\u8a72\u6307\u6a19\u5411\u4f86\u88ab\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff09\u8996\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u91cd\u8981\u53c3\u8003\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u9810\u4f30\uff0c\u5f9e\u7dda\u4e0a\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u8da8\u7de9\u63a8\u4f30\uff0c1 \u6708 CPI \u5e74\u589e\u7387\u4f30\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u7de9\u81f3 6.3\uff05\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u53bb\u5e74 12 \u6708\u7684 6.5\uff05 \u589e\u5e45\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/blocktemponews\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-194701 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2022\/11\/\u52d5\u5340\u5b98\u7db2tg-banner-1116.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"164\" srcset=\"https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2022\/11\/\u52d5\u5340\u5b98\u7db2tg-banner-1116-300x62.png 300w, https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2022\/11\/\u52d5\u5340\u5b98\u7db2tg-banner-1116-768x157.png 768w, https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2022\/11\/b3hG6umc-\u52d5\u5340\u5b98\u7db2tg-banner-1116-750x164.png 750w, https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2022\/11\/\u52d5\u5340\u5b98\u7db2tg-banner-1116.png 800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<h3>\ud83d\udccd\u76f8\u95dc\u5831\u5c0e\ud83d\udccd<\/h3>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/pantera-capital-predict-bitcoin-halving-will-make-btc-to-14900\/\">Pantera\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u6e1b\u534a\u5f8c\u5c07\u6f32\u81f3\u300c14.9 \u842c\u7f8e\u5143\u300d\uff01\u56e0 FTT \u6158\u8ce0\u4f46\u4ecd\u6a02\u89c0\u770b\u5f85<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/btc-21800-perpetual-sec-kraken\/\">\u7f8e\u570b\u76e3\u7ba1\u52a0\u5287\u300b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u8dcc\u7834 21,800 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e00\u591c\u5168\u7db2\u7206\u5009 2.78 \u5104<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/well-known-analyst-plan-b-says-this-is-bull-trap\/\"><strong>PlanB\u767c\u6587\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u662f\u725b\u5e02\u9677\u9631\u300d\u88ab\u8cea\u7591S2F\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5fd9\u89e3\u91cb\uff1a\u6b63\u8655\u4e0b\u8f2a\u725b\u5e02\u958b\u7aef<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u63d0\u51fa\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63 S2F \u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8912\u8cb6\u4e0d\u4e00\u7684\u533f\u540d\u5206\u6790\u5e2b PlanB\u3002\u6628\u65e5\u767c\u63a8\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u5e7e\u7a2e BTC \u50f9\u683c\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":138,"featured_media":213135,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[831,838],"tags":[7209,4679,14325,68],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/image.blocktempo.com\/2023\/02\/Foxkk5XWYAE3hBq.png","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213124"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/138"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=213124"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213124\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":213155,"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213124\/revisions\/213155"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/213135"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=213124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=213124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=213124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}