{"id":398052,"date":"2025-02-07T13:31:35","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T05:31:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/?p=398052"},"modified":"2025-02-07T13:31:35","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T05:31:35","slug":"fed-official-lorie-logan-interest-rates-are-near-neutral-with-limited-room-for-short-term-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/fed-official-lorie-logan-interest-rates-are-near-neutral-with-limited-room-for-short-term-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u505c\u6b62\u964d\u606f\uff1fFed\u5b98\u54e1\u558a\u300c\u5c31\u696d\u5f37\u52c1\u3001\u901a\u81a8\u8fd12%\u300d\u5df2\u9054\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u9054\u62c9\u65af\u806f\u6e96\u9280\u884c\u7e3d\u88c1\u6d1b\u6839\u5728 BIS \u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u901a\u81a8\u8da8\u7de9\u8207\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5065\uff0cFed \u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e2d\u6027\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650\u3002\u5979\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u901a\u81a8\u63a5\u8fd1 2% \u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4ecd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u4f7f\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u51fa\u73fe\u60e1\u5316\u8de1\u8c61\u3002
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\n\uff08\u80cc\u666f\u88dc\u5145\uff1a\u50b3\u5947\u5927\u7a7a\u982d\uff1a\u5df2\u770b\u5230\u7f8e\u80a1\u6ce1\u6cab\u8de1\u8c61\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5e74\u6700\u5927\u98a8\u96aa\u662f\u985e Deepseek \u6548\u61c9<\/a><\/span> \uff09<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7f8e<\/span>\u570b\u52de\u5de5\u90e8\u672c\u9031\u4e09\uff085 \u65e5\uff09\u516c\u5e03 ADP \u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c1 \u6708\u4efd\u6c11\u9593\u4f01\u696d\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u7d93\u5b63\u7bc0\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 18.3 \u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u5275\u4e0b\u81ea\u53bb\u5e74 10 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u5927\u589e\u5e45\uff0c\u4e26\u8d85\u904e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u671f\u7684 14.8 \u842c\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\u7f8e\u570b\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u4ecd\u5177\u97cc\u6027\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u9996\u6b21\u7533\u8acb\u5931\u696d\u6551\u6fdf\u91d1\u4eba\u6578\u7565\u9ad8\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u9ad4\u5c31\u696d\u589e\u9577\u5f37\u52c1\u3002<\/p>\n

Fed \u5b98\u54e1\u6d1b\u6839\uff1a\u5229\u7387\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e2d\u6027\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u964d\u606f\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650<\/h3>\n

\u5728\u9019\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u9054\u62c9\u65af\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u7e3d\u88c1\u6d1b\u6839\uff08Lorie Logan\uff09\u6628\u65e5\u65bc\u570b\u969b\u6e05\u7b97\u9280\u884c\uff08BIS\uff09\u5728\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u57ce\u8209\u8fa6\u7684\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u6307\u51fa<\/a>\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u9700\u6c42\u5f37\u52c1\u3001\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5065\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u7387\u9010\u6b65\u63a5\u8fd1\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff09\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u986f\u793a Fed \u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e2d\u6027\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u5979\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u82e5\u6b64\u8da8\u52e2\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650\uff1a<\/p>\n

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\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\uff08Neutral Rate\uff09\u662f\u6307\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u8655\u65bc\u65e2\u4e0d\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3001\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6291\u5236\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u63db\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u7576\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u6b64\u6c34\u5e73\u6642\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u80fd\u5920\u5728\u4e0d\u7522\u751f\u904e\u71b1\u6216\u901a\u7e2e\u58d3\u529b\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ee5\u6f5b\u5728\u589e\u9577\u7387\u7a69\u5b9a\u767c\u5c55\u3002<\/div>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5979\u4e5f\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u82e5\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u51fa\u73fe\u60e1\u5316\u8de1\u8c61\uff0cFed \u53ef\u80fd\u8003\u616e\u964d\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6d1b\u6839\u767c\u8a00\u5099\u53d7\u95dc\u6ce8<\/h3>\n

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\ud83d\udccd\u76f8\u95dc\u5831\u5c0e\ud83d\udccd<\/h5>\n

Arthur Hayes \u8b66\u544a\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5132\u5099\u300c\u6050\u6210\u653f\u6cbb\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u300d\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ee8\u52dd\u9078\u6216\u6e05\u5009\u62cb\u552e<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u5b58\u6b3e\u4fdd\u96aa(FDIC)\u5c07\u4fee\u6539\u522a\u9664\u300c\u52a0\u5bc6\u6b67\u8996\u653f\u7b56\u300d\uff0c\u4ee3\u7406\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff1a\u4e0d\u8a72\u963b\u6b62\u9280\u884c\u63a5\u89f8\u5340\u584a\u93c8<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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