{"id":401789,"date":"2025-02-25T11:26:34","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T03:26:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/?p=401789"},"modified":"2025-02-25T11:52:22","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T03:52:22","slug":"arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-could-drop-to-70000-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blocktempo.com\/arthur-hayes-predicts-bitcoin-could-drop-to-70000-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u770b\u8dcc\u81f37\u842c\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u7372\u5229\u4e86\u7d50\u6210\u5c0e\u706b\u7dda"},"content":{"rendered":"

BitMEX \u5171\u540c\u5275\u8fa6\u4eba Arthur Hayes \u4eca\u65e5\u91cd\u7533\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5c07\u5728 Q1 \u6216 Q2 \u521d\u66b4\u8dcc\u81f3 7 \u842c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e26\u7a31\u6301\u6709\u8c9d\u840a\u5fb7\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u73fe\u8ca8 ETF $IBIT \u7684\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u6e96\u5099\u5e73\u5009\u7372\u5229\u4e86\u7d50\uff0c\u5c07\u6210\u70ba\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u77ed\u671f\u5927\u5e45\u56de\u8abf\u7684\u5c0e\u706b\u7dda\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002
\n\uff08\u524d\u60c5\u63d0\u8981\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u63d2\u91dd$90850\u5e02\u5834\u9677\u300c\u6975\u5ea6\u6050\u61fc\u300d\u3001\u4ee5\u592a\u574a\u5931\u5b882500\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5ddd\u666e\uff1a\u52a0\u58a8\u95dc\u7a05\u4e0b\u9031\u5982\u671f\u958b\u5fb5<\/a><\/span>\uff09
\n\uff08\u80cc\u666f\u88dc\u5145\uff1a
Arthur Hayes\u6700\u65b0\u5168\u6587\u300b\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63Q1\u6050\u8dcc\u56de7\u842c\u9382\uff01\u5c0f\u578b\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u8feb\u7f8e\u570b\u91cd\u555f\u5370\u9214\u6a5f<\/a><\/span>\uff09<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

B<\/span>itMEX \u5171\u540c\u5275\u8fa6\u4eba Arthur Hayes \u5728 1 \u6708\u5e95\u6642\u66fe\u64b0\u6587\u9810\u6e2c<\/a>\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5c07\u5728 Q1 \u6216 Q2 \u521d\u91cd\u6454\u81f3 7 \u842c\uff5e 7.5 \u842c\u7f8e\u5143\u5340\u9593\uff0c\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u4eca\u5e74\u4e00\u5834\u5c0f\u578b\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u7206\u767c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5c07\u88ab\u8feb\u91cd\u555f\u5370\u9214\u6a5f\uff0c\u63a8\u52d5\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u5e95\u4e0a\u770b 25 \u842c\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n

\u800c\u5728\u4eca\uff0825\uff09\u65e5\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u63d2\u91dd\u81f3 90850 \u7f8e\u5143<\/a>\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0cArthur Hayes \u518d\u5ea6\u65bc X \u767c\u6587\u91cd\u7533\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5c07\u5927\u5e45\u4fee\u6b63\u81f3 7 \u842c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e26\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u4f55\u4e00\u4e9b\u6301\u6709\u8c9d\u840a\u5fb7\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u73fe\u8ca8 ETF $IBIT \u7684\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u5c07\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u9019\u6ce2\u725b\u5e02\u56de\u8abf\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u7684\u5c0e\u706b\u7dda\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u54e5\u5e03\u6797\u57ce\u93ae\u5373\u5c07\u5230\u4f86\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u8a31\u591a$IBIT \u6301\u6709\u8005\u90fd\u662f\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u900f\u904e\u505a\u591a\uff08\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\uff09ETF \u3001\u505a\u7a7a CME \u671f\u8ca8\uff0c\u4f86\u8cfa\u53d6\u6bd4\u4ed6\u5011\u7528\u4f86\u878d\u8cc7\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c BTC \u4e0b\u8dcc\u5c0e\u81f4\u57fa\u5dee\uff08basis\uff0c\u73fe\u8ca8\u8207\u671f\u8ca8\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u50f9\u5dee\uff09\u7e2e\u5c0f\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u9019\u4e9b\u57fa\u91d1\u5c07\u8ce3\u51fa $IBIT \u4e26\u56de\u8cfc CME \u671f\u8ca8\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u9019\u4e9b\u57fa\u91d1\u6b63\u8655\u65bc\u7372\u5229\u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u9451\u65bc\u57fa\u5dee\u63a5\u8fd1\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5c07\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u4ea4\u6613\u6642\u6bb5\u9032\u884c\u5e73\u5009\u4ee5\u5be6\u73fe\u5229\u6f64\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u770b\u5230\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u8dcc\u5230 70,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u524d\u666f\u4e86\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n

#Bitcoin<\/a> goblin town incoming:
Lots of
$IBIT<\/a> holders are hedge funds that went long ETF short CME future to earn a yield greater than where they fund, short term US treasuries.<\/p>\n

If that basis drops as $BTC<\/a> falls, then these funds will sell $IBIT<\/a> and buy back CME futures. <\/p>\n

These\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/3PskTxrBPR<\/a><\/p>\n

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n